Tuesday, June 06, 2006

Update on severe weather possibility

As promised, here is my revisit to the severe weather possibility tomorrow. The SPC has placed all of west Tennessee, north Mississippi, and the counties in eastern Arkansas south of I-40 under a slight risk for severe weather in its Day 2 Outlook. They say that "damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats across these regions mainly during the afternoon and evening hours". The NWS office in Memphis agrees with this - they say basically the same thing in their Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Time for the forecast models. The ETA's CAPE values (3000) seem to be greatest in western TN (from Jackson going east) at 7:00 PM. They fizzle out after 10:00 PM. Also, around that time, we will be seeing dewpoints upwards of 70 across all of west TN and most of north MS.

Though the risk is definitely not big, there will still be some instability to create some thunderstorms, some of which will probably be severe. Stay tuned tomorrow for more information.

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