Tuesday, April 25, 2006

Severe weather possible tonight - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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The SPC in Norman, OK, has just issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of the MEG TN counties, all in AR except Phillips and Lee, and the MO counties. This watch is in effect until 11:00 pm tonight.

Stay tuned for more info.

Monday, April 17, 2006

Record high set today - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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At Memphis International Airport today, the high was 91 degrees at 4:45 pm. This passed the previous record of 90 set in 1937. The high at my weather station today was 94.3 at 3:30 pm.

Sunday, April 16, 2006

Humor in NWS forecast - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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Though this has nothing to do with the Memphis area, it is still funny for anyone to read. This AFD was issued at 2:53 PM on Saturday by the Birmingham, AL office (link).

"GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA. HOWEVER THIS PRECIP IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGES OF A WEAK RIDGE...SO MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LOOOOOONG TERM IS THAT COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON IS JUST 137 DAYS AWAY."

Friday, April 07, 2006

New tornado watch just issued for TN & MS - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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The SPC in Norman, OK, has just issued a new, fresh Tornado Watch for all of the NWS MEG Tennessee and Mississippi counties until 4:00 am. Be prepared for more severe weather in the next eight hours.

Huge severe weather outbreak in northern Mississippi - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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EDIT: Changed post to reduce radar image to thumbnail size.

ORIGINAL (5:36 pm): This image speaks without words:

Severe weather popping up this afternoon - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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EDIT: Here is a radar scan of the severe thunderstorm moving through eastern Shelby County at 11:50 am. (Click on it for the full-size version)


ORIGINAL POST (1:07 pm): Well, here we go again. Most schools in the Memphis area have dismissed early due to the threat of severe weather. About an hour ago, I observed the severe thunderstorm moving through Shelby County in Cordova. There, I saw pea-sized hail, and I called the NWS to report it. This storm is now moving through Hardeman and McNairy Counties.

Also, we are under a PDS Tornado Watch until 8:00 pm. PDS means "Particularly Dangerous Situation". These are rarely issued. Also, we are under a high risk for severe weather today.

Stay with this blog for more info throughout the afternoon and evening.

High risk for severe weather today - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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Just when we don't need it, more severe weather will be rolling through this afternoon and evening. The NWS says a "dangerous, life-threatening tornado outbreak" is forecast today. Please begin to make preparations for this outbreak now.

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Severe weather likely tomorrow - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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In a SPS, the Memphis NWS states that a severe weather outbreak is likely tomorrow. The SPC has placed most of the Mid-South under a moderate risk for severe weather tomorrow, while a slight risk is in effect for today.

We just don't need more severe weather yet - people are still cleaning up from Sunday's tornadoes. By the way, Dyer and Gibson Counties are now federal disaster areas.

Stay tuned for more details.

Monday, April 03, 2006

Massive damage reported from severe weather - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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There were many fatalities reported last night and early morning. Eight deaths occurred in Gibson County, where fifty injuries were reported. In Dyer County, eleven deaths were reported. Another death occured in Pemiscot County.

Marmaduke, AR is completely shut down but to emergency personnel.

I don't have time to completely review this storm, but that will come later.

Pray for the victims of this storm.

Jake

Sunday, April 02, 2006

Aftermath of severe weather damage, more might be on the way - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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EDIT #9: A new Tornado Watch has been issued for all of western TN, northern MS, and most of eastern AR. This is valid until 4:00 AM Monday. However, go to the NWS-Memphis and SPC websites for info, as I am signing off for tonight. But, if there is some strong severe weather near Memphis, I will be awake and a-posting.

Everyone be safe!
Jake

EDIT #8 (9:09 PM): Receiving 1st reports out of the MO bootheel and surrounding area, including reports of fatalities. See comments.

EDIT #7 (8:30 PM): Severe T'storm Warning for Shelby/Fayette Counties just issued until 9:00 PM. The sirens are going off here, though my location in Germantown has received no rain or any severe wx stuff.

EDIT #6 (8:12 PM): See comments section for latest info.

EDIT #5 (7:47 PM): A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has just been issued for Shelby County until 8:15 PM. Quarter sized hail is possible in this storm.

EDIT #4 (7:26 PM): The tornado near Wynne is still active, and seems to possibly be moving toward southern Shelby County. I don't know the exact location of where the tornado is going. To be sure, turn to a local channel with weather information at once, and be prepared to take further action.

EDIT #3 (7:02 PM): A new tornado has been reported five miles west of Wynne a few minutes ago, and, I hate to say it, is moving toward Memphis. Also, just coming across the scanner, roof damage has been reported in Tipton County near Covington due to straight line winds. Expect a warning in a minute for this cell.

EDIT #2 (6:32 PM): The Greene/Randolph County Tornado Warning actually had a tornado touchdown in Imboden, AR. The path has continued through Pocahontas and Marmaduke, AR, and is still on the ground, moving toward Dunklin County. As a result, the NWS just issued a Tornado Warning for Dunklin County until 7:00 PM CDT. This storm will mainly track across rural areas. Also, a Significant Weather Advisory has been issued for Pemiscot County, saying that the storm will move into the area after 7:00. (By the way, SKYWARN has been activated.)

EDIT (5:37 PM): Greene County is now under a Tornado Warning until 6:15 PM (this is the same storm listed below). Also, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Phillips and Coahoma Counties until 6:00 PM.

ORIGINAL POST (5:25 PM): Severe weather is absolutely exploding on the radar this afternoon. GRLevel3 says that at the time this post was published, 34 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and 20 Tornado Warnings were in effect. One of those Tornado Warnings are in the Memphis CWA - it is for Lawrence and Randolph Counties until 5:45 PM. A tornado has been spotted by law enforcement near Imboden, and it is moving east at 50 mph.

Additionally, there is a Tornado Watch in effect for the entire Mid-South until 9:00 PM tonight.

Stay tuned for the latest.

Severe weather to move in today - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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According to the NWS, severe weather is supposed to move into the Mid-South today. We are under a slight risk for severe weather (5% tornado, 30% hail, 15-30% damaging wind). At the present time, a squall line is moving through Fayette County, Marshall/Benton County, and Lafayette County. No warnings are in effect at the moment.

Stay tuned for the rest of the day for more info.

Saturday, April 01, 2006

"Potentially dangerous weather situation" tomorrow - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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Now, time for some REAL weather - no joke :). The SPC in Norman, OK, has most of the Mid-South under a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow (45%). The NWS in Memphis is taking this storm system seriously - "Tornadoes along with large hail and downbursts are very possible tomorrow afternoon and evening." (quote from AFD)

Now, it's time to look at the forecast models (thanks to WxPortal). On the ETA, CAPE values at 18:00 (6 PM) Sunday are around 2000-2500 (for the non-weather person [NWP], this suggests that there is a moderate to strong severe potential). The lifted index is showing values of -6 at that time (NWP's: strong t'storm potential). For the NWPs, the basic, generic thunderstorm probability at 18:00 is 100%.

Longterm, there is another chance for severe weather April 5-7. The GFS forecast model can (sort of) help us out here. Based on the lifted index, the best time for this severe weather (if there is any) would be on the 6th around 6 PM. But, even then, the values only show -2 (NWP's: just a possibility of thunderstorms). Just have to wait that one out.

"Potentially dangerous weather situation" tomorrow

Now, time for some REAL weather - no joke :). The SPC in Norman, OK, has most of the Mid-South under a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow (45%). The NWS in Memphis is taking this storm system seriously - "Tornadoes along with large hail and downbursts are very possible tomorrow afternoon and evening." (quote from AFD)

Now, it's time to look at the forecast models (thanks to WxPortal). On the ETA, CAPE values at 18:00 (6 PM) Sunday are around 2000-2500 (for the non-weather person [NWP], this suggests that there is a moderate to strong severe potential). The lifted index is showing values of -6 at that time (NWP's: strong t'storm potential). For the NWPs, the basic, generic thunderstorm probability at 18:00 is 100%.

Longterm, there is another chance for severe weather April 5-7. The GFS forecast model can (sort of) help us out here. Based on the lifted index, the best time for this severe weather (if there is any) would be on the 6th around 6 PM. But, even then, the values only show -2 (NWP's: just a possibility of thunderstorms). Just have to wait that one out.

50 tornadoes to strike Memphis tomorrow

The HWO from NWS MEG states that there is a 97% chance of at least 50 tornadoes striking the Memphis Metro Area. Here is the unedited version of the HWO:

FLUS44 KMEG 012051
HWOMEG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
0306 PM CST SAT APR 1 2006

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-021230-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST.FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
0306 PM CST SAT APR 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL RISE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MID SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UNSTABLE AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY STRONG. THE GFS AND NAM STATE HUGE CAPE VALUES OVER 10000 FOR SUNDAY EVENING DIRECTLY OVER THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA. THUS, WE ARE FORECASTING A 97% CHANCE OF OVER FIFTY TORNADOES STRIKING THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. WE ENCOURAGE ANYONE WITHIN FIFTY MILES OF THE METRO AREA EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY OR CONSTRUCT AN UNDERGROUND STORM SHELTER AT LEAST ONE HUNDRED FEET BELOW THE GROUND. ANYONE LEFT IN THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA WILL DIE IMMEDIATELY DUE TO AIRBORNE DEBRIS FLYING OVER 300 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TOMORROW AS WE ENCOURAGE ANYONE WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA EVACUATE. EVEN THE ENTIRE FORECASTING STAFF HERE AT THE NWS WILL BE LEAVING TOWN TOMORROW BECAUSE THIS IS AN APRIL FOOLS' JOKE.

$$

JH
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Note: no one at the NWS sent this out. I made this up as an April Fools' joke. If you really don't think so, go ahead and evacuate.

More chances of severe weather

We're in that (wonderful) time of year. No, not Christmas, but the annual severe weather season! As a result, we, in the Mid-South, have several chances for severe weather in the coming week.

First, there is a slight risk for severe weather for the entire Mid-South on Sunday afternoon and evening (45% chance for the area). According to the Day 2 Convective Outlook, a few strong tornadoes, destructive winds, and damaging hail are possible. (A technical analysis on this system will be coming later today.)

Additionally, severe weather is possible across the entire region this coming Wednesday into Friday, according to the Day 4-8 Convective Outlook. Not much is known about this one, so stay tuned next week for more details.

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