Tornado Watch issued for majority of Mid-South

The SPC in Norman, OK, has just issued a Tornado Watch (#119) for the majority of the Mid-South until 10:00 PM tonight. "Tornadoes, hail to two inches in diameter, thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph, and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas." I will be out of the house this evening, so go to the NWS-Memphis website for the latest updates.

Severe weather popping up this afternoon

Well, I guess I was wrong. Severe storms are popping up this afternoon. Presently, there is a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Craighead County until 4:30 PM. Quarter sized hail has been reported in this storm. Additionally, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect until 4:00 PM for Obion County. Quarter sized hail has also been reported in this storm. The Short Term Forecast issued by MEG says that these storms will continue to move east throughout the rest of the afternoon. Stay with this blog for the latest.

Severe weather possibility seems to have diminished

Based on the SPC outlooks, NWS MEG's AFDs and HWOs, the severe threat seems to have diminished. Sure, we could still have some storms, and even a few severe ones, but I'm just not seeing the huge risk.

Looking at the forecast models, here is what I see. Based on the ETA, the thunderstorm probability at best tomorrow is only 60%. CAPE values around noon CST are only 1000, which is the highest seen during the day tomorrow. In Memphis, the lifted index never goes below 0. Oh well.

Though we will probably not see very much severe weather, we could definitely see some heavy rainfall. The models seem to agree on this - GFS reports at 6 AM tomorrow, northwest TN and northeast AR could be seeing some very heavy rainfall.

There might be a glimmer of hope on Friday afternoon, when CAPE values seem to increase, though the model has not run that far yet. Have to wait until later.

I'll watch what the models say tonight.

Chance of severe weather Thursday

According to the Storm Prediction Center, parts of the Mid-South are under a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday. Based on the Day 3 Outlook, northeastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, and a sliver of northwestern Mississippi are under the slight risk. The Hazardous Weather Outlook from the NWSFO Memphis, some of the incoming storms could produce large hail and damaging winds. Additionally, heavy rain is possible. "Spotter activation may be required Thursday night into Friday."

Looking to recover old posts

Some of you may recognize me from the old Memphis Weather News blog (weather.blogspot.com). Does anyone know where I could find my old posts cached somewhere? I would like to add them to this blog (and, by the way, Google does not have them).

Jake

Technical Update #3

Current Hazards

• None

SPC Products

• Slight risk (15%): Day 3 (March 30)

Hazardous Weather Outlook / Area Forecast Discussion

• The cold front moving in Thursday will likely bring thunderstorms ahead of the front. Some of these storms could be severe, producing large hail and damaging winds. Rain could be heavy.
  
• Dry weather today and Wednesday
• Another storm system will approach Sunday night into Monday
• Spotter activation may be needed Thursday

Weather Data Info

• No known problems
  

Technical Update #2/Climate Summary

Current Advisories

• None

SPC Products

• Extended outlook: Severe T'storm possibility on March 30

Hazardous Weather Outlook / Area Forecast Discussion

• Light rain should begin to end, however chance of rain will linger until 6 AM tomorrow, then the cold front will exit
  
• Cold front moving through on Thursday, could be some strong storms with heavy rainfall
• Southerly winds will prevail for the coming week

Weather Data Info

• No known problems

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Climate Summary
March 27, 2006
High: 67.1 F at 12:34 PM
Low: 37.7 F at 4:04 AM
High Wind: 13 mph at 12:02 PM
No rainfall reported

Technical Update #1

In case you are wondering what Technical Updates are, they are basically summaries of the current National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center products relative to Memphis. I do these updates about twice a day.

Current Advisories

• None
  

SPC Products

• General T'storms today
• Extended outlook: Severe T'storm event for most of area possible mainly on March 30
  

Hazardous Weather Outlook / Area Forecast Discussion

• More light showers will continue through tonight, no t'storms as the atmosphere is too stable
• Next cold front moving in Wednesday, possibility of severe weather mainly on Thursday night into Friday morning; however, there is still some uncertainty with the severity of the event, but there could be heavy rainfall
• Next system will come Sunday night into Monday
  

Weather Data Information

• No known problems

Startup

Hi everyone!

This blog will cover many weather-related things pertaining to the Memphis area. But first, let me introduce myself.

My name is Jake Hughes, and I live near Memphis. I plan to become a meteorologist in the National Weather Service someday. I have always been interested in weather, particularly severe weather. My interest in weather, I think, began because when I was a toddler, my grandfather would always watch the Weather Channel. I also remember specifically me and him watching coverage of Hurricane Danny.

I plan on receiving my Bachelors' Degree in meteorology then going on to get my Masters' Degree.

I currently own and maintain a weather station located in Germantown, TN. Data is uploaded to the Internet every minute. You can find my data at Weather Underground, CWOP, and AWEKAS.

Anyway, let me get on to my first real post.
Jake

Thinking of becoming a ham operator - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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Hi everyone! I am considering becoming a licensed ham radio operator. I think I will take the exam sometime in the middle of April, so any advice about starting out on ham radio (with a tight budget) would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks!
Jake

Severe weather rolling in this morning - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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The SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for areas west of the Mississippi River until 10:00 AM. Though the severe weather has not moved into the Memphis CWA, it will within the next two hours.

Definite possibility of severe weather tonight - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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Well, you most likely know that it is VERY warm for early March. In fact, here at my house, it is presently 86.3 degrees. We are not helped from the winds as they are warm winds. These ingredients will help to make a good possibility of severe weather tonight.

The SPC in Norman, OK, has placed most of Arkansas a under a moderate risk of severe weather today. The rest of the Mid-South is under a slight risk for severe weather.

Locally, the NWS in Memphis thinks that the best bet for severe weather will be northern Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel. However, severe weather could occur anywhere across the Mid-South tonight.

Here we go again... - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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Just two days after our lovely bout with severe weather, another round is forecast. There were two Severe Thunderstorm Watches (#60 & 61) in effect for northeastern Arkansas and most of west Tennessee. These watches (just barely) included Shelby County. However, the SPC has cancelled the watches for all of the Memphis CWA.

I should be posting throughout most of the day.

Latest on Mid-South severe weather - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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As you probably know, a massive amount of severe weather rolled through the Mid-South this morning and afternoon. There are over 50 storm reports that have been called into the NWS. We are currently under a Tornado Watch that is supposed to last until 7 PM, but will be likely be cancelled in some areas.

Don't celebrate just yet--there is some redevelopment after the main line of showers. In fact, this redevelopment has prompted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of northern Arkansas.

I will be posting all night, so check back often.

It's going to be a great day for severe weather... - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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UPDATE: The NWS in Memphis has just issued a Tornado Warning for Cross County until 7:30 AM. Additionally, the SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for most of the Mid-South until 2:00 PM.

ORIGINAL POST (6:03 AM):As I a posting this, WFO MEG has issued their first Severe Thunderstorm Warning for several counties in northeast Arkansas. (Check out the radar scan below) Additionally, WFO LZK (Little Rock) has issued a Tornado Warning for Lonoke County.

The SPC has placed us under a "Moderate Risk" for severe weather today. Also, they call this situation an "extremely dangerous situation".

I will not be able to post throughout the day, but I will be posting up a storm this afternoon.

Moderate risk for severe weather tomorrow - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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UPDATE: WFO MEG has cancelled the Wind Advisory. They say that winds have fallen to 10-20 mph, which is below advisory criteria.

ORIGINAL POST (5:35 pm): The SPC has placed the entire Mid-South under a "moderate risk" for severe weather tomorrow. They say that there is a risk for winds over 80 mph, hail bigger than 2" in diameter, and isolated tornadoes.

Also, WFO MEG has issued a Wind Advisory for most of the Mid-South. Winds higher than 39 mph but less than 57 mph are possible.

I will post more on this later.

Sorry for the data loss... - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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I am sorry for the data loss that occurred today from noon to 4 PM. My stupid internet stopped working.

Data being sent again - WU

**This post was archived from the MemphisWx WunderBlog.**
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I have fixed the problems and now am posting live data to Wunderground and CWOP.

Jake