Friday, March 31, 2006
Wednesday, March 29, 2006
Looking at the forecast models, here is what I see. Based on the ETA, the thunderstorm probability at best tomorrow is only 60%. CAPE values around noon CST are only 1000, which is the highest seen during the day tomorrow. In Memphis, the lifted index never goes below 0. Oh well.
Though we will probably not see very much severe weather, we could definitely see some heavy rainfall. The models seem to agree on this - GFS reports at 6 AM tomorrow, northwest TN and northeast AR could be seeing some very heavy rainfall.
There might be a glimmer of hope on Friday afternoon, when CAPE values seem to increase, though the model has not run that far yet. Have to wait until later.
I'll watch what the models say tonight.
Tuesday, March 28, 2006
- Slight risk (15%): Day 3 (March 30)
- The cold front moving in Thursday will likely bring thunderstorms ahead of the front. Some of these storms could be severe, producing large hail and damaging winds. Rain could be heavy.
- Dry weather today and Wednesday
- Another storm system will approach Sunday night into Monday
- Spotter activation may be needed Thursday
- No known problems
Monday, March 27, 2006
- Extended outlook: Severe T'storm possibility on March 30
- Light rain should begin to end, however chance of rain will linger until 6 AM tomorrow, then the cold front will exit
- Cold front moving through on Thursday, could be some strong storms with heavy rainfall
- Southerly winds will prevail for the coming week
- No known problems
March 27, 2006
High: 67.1 F at 12:34 PM
Low: 37.7 F at 4:04 AM
High Wind: 13 mph at 12:02 PM
No rainfall reported
- General T'storms today
- Extended outlook: Severe T'storm event for most of area possible mainly on March 30
Hazardous Weather Outlook / Area Forecast Discussion
- More light showers will continue through tonight, no t'storms as the atmosphere is too stable
- Next cold front moving in Wednesday, possibility of severe weather mainly on Thursday night into Friday morning; however, there is still some uncertainty with the severity of the event, but there could be heavy rainfall
- Next system will come Sunday night into Monday
Weather Data Information
- No known problems
This blog will cover many weather-related things pertaining to the Memphis area. But first, let me introduce myself.
My name is Jake Hughes, and I live near Memphis. I plan to become a meteorologist in the National Weather Service someday. I have always been interested in weather, particularly severe weather. My interest in weather, I think, began because when I was a toddler, my grandfather would always watch the Weather Channel. I also remember specifically me and him watching coverage of Hurricane Danny.
I plan on receiving my Bachelors' Degree in meteorology then going on to get my Masters' Degree.
I currently own and maintain a weather station located in Germantown, TN. Data is uploaded to the Internet every minute. You can find my data at Weather Underground, CWOP, and AWEKAS.
Anyway, let me get on to my first real post.
Sunday, March 26, 2006
Hi everyone! I am considering becoming a licensed ham radio operator. I think I will take the exam sometime in the middle of April, so any advice about starting out on ham radio (with a tight budget) would be greatly appreciated.
Monday, March 13, 2006
The SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for areas west of the Mississippi River until 10:00 AM. Though the severe weather has not moved into the Memphis CWA, it will within the next two hours.
Sunday, March 12, 2006
Well, you most likely know that it is VERY warm for early March. In fact, here at my house, it is presently 86.3 degrees. We are not helped from the winds as they are warm winds. These ingredients will help to make a good possibility of severe weather tonight.
The SPC in Norman, OK, has placed most of Arkansas a under a moderate risk of severe weather today. The rest of the Mid-South is under a slight risk for severe weather.
Locally, the NWS in Memphis thinks that the best bet for severe weather will be northern Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel. However, severe weather could occur anywhere across the Mid-South tonight.
Saturday, March 11, 2006
Just two days after our lovely bout with severe weather, another round is forecast. There were two Severe Thunderstorm Watches (#60 & 61) in effect for northeastern Arkansas and most of west Tennessee. These watches (just barely) included Shelby County. However, the SPC has cancelled the watches for all of the Memphis CWA.
I should be posting throughout most of the day.
Thursday, March 09, 2006
As you probably know, a massive amount of severe weather rolled through the Mid-South this morning and afternoon. There are over 50 storm reports that have been called into the NWS. We are currently under a Tornado Watch that is supposed to last until 7 PM, but will be likely be cancelled in some areas.
Don't celebrate just yet--there is some redevelopment after the main line of showers. In fact, this redevelopment has prompted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of northern Arkansas.
I will be posting all night, so check back often.
UPDATE: The NWS in Memphis has just issued a Tornado Warning for Cross County until 7:30 AM. Additionally, the SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for most of the Mid-South until 2:00 PM.
ORIGINAL POST (6:03 AM):As I a posting this, WFO MEG has issued their first Severe Thunderstorm Warning for several counties in northeast Arkansas. (Check out the radar scan below) Additionally, WFO LZK (Little Rock) has issued a Tornado Warning for Lonoke County.
The SPC has placed us under a "Moderate Risk" for severe weather today. Also, they call this situation an "extremely dangerous situation".
I will not be able to post throughout the day, but I will be posting up a storm this afternoon.
Wednesday, March 08, 2006
UPDATE: WFO MEG has cancelled the Wind Advisory. They say that winds have fallen to 10-20 mph, which is below advisory criteria.
ORIGINAL POST (5:35 pm): The SPC has placed the entire Mid-South under a "moderate risk" for severe weather tomorrow. They say that there is a risk for winds over 80 mph, hail bigger than 2" in diameter, and isolated tornadoes.
Also, WFO MEG has issued a Wind Advisory for most of the Mid-South. Winds higher than 39 mph but less than 57 mph are possible.
I will post more on this later.
Tuesday, March 07, 2006
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