Monday, June 05, 2006

Small chance of severe weather Wednesday

According to NWS Memphis's AFD (Area Forecast Discussion), all of eastern AR and the counties in TN bordering the Miss. River could see some severe weather after midnight Wednesday, and the thunderstorms could linger until the morning. It is a pretty slim chance, according to the SPC's Day 2 Outlook, holding it at 15%.

Looking at the forecast models (thanks to WxPortal), I really don't think that any severe weather, if it happens, will begin until after 10:00 AM. There are no CAPE or lifted index values across the area until that time. However, the current run of the ETA only goes out until 1:00 PM CT, so I'll have to wait until tomorrow to give you more specifics, but it's looking like there will be a better chance for severe weather in the afternoon. The GFS can't help us out because there is a big chunk of the data missing, but it seems to be generally be saying the same thing as the ETA.

I'll give you more information tomorrow when more data is available.

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