Saturday, April 01, 2006

"Potentially dangerous weather situation" tomorrow

Now, time for some REAL weather - no joke :). The SPC in Norman, OK, has most of the Mid-South under a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow (45%). The NWS in Memphis is taking this storm system seriously - "Tornadoes along with large hail and downbursts are very possible tomorrow afternoon and evening." (quote from AFD)

Now, it's time to look at the forecast models (thanks to WxPortal). On the ETA, CAPE values at 18:00 (6 PM) Sunday are around 2000-2500 (for the non-weather person [NWP], this suggests that there is a moderate to strong severe potential). The lifted index is showing values of -6 at that time (NWP's: strong t'storm potential). For the NWPs, the basic, generic thunderstorm probability at 18:00 is 100%.

Longterm, there is another chance for severe weather April 5-7. The GFS forecast model can (sort of) help us out here. Based on the lifted index, the best time for this severe weather (if there is any) would be on the 6th around 6 PM. But, even then, the values only show -2 (NWP's: just a possibility of thunderstorms). Just have to wait that one out.

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