Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Severe weather possibility seems to have diminished

Based on the SPC outlooks, NWS MEG's AFDs and HWOs, the severe threat seems to have diminished. Sure, we could still have some storms, and even a few severe ones, but I'm just not seeing the huge risk.

Looking at the forecast models, here is what I see. Based on the ETA, the thunderstorm probability at best tomorrow is only 60%. CAPE values around noon CST are only 1000, which is the highest seen during the day tomorrow. In Memphis, the lifted index never goes below 0. Oh well.

Though we will probably not see very much severe weather, we could definitely see some heavy rainfall. The models seem to agree on this - GFS reports at 6 AM tomorrow, northwest TN and northeast AR could be seeing some very heavy rainfall.

There might be a glimmer of hope on Friday afternoon, when CAPE values seem to increase, though the model has not run that far yet. Have to wait until later.

I'll watch what the models say tonight.

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